Amazon vs AliBaba – Comparison Infographic

Amazon – the biggest online retailer in the world has recently turned 20, and my, has it grown. In these short 20 years, the American wonder has managed to reach more than $70 billion in revenue. In its path to world dominance it began selling everything from books, to ebooks, to apps and recently even groceries.

Under Jeff Bezos’ leadership, Amazon went from a small start-up in 1994 to a company challenging the biggest retail companies and even conventional retail itself.

From across the globe, Amazon’s hegemony itself has been challenged by AliBaba, a company founded in 1999 by former English teacher Jack Ma. Just like China’s economy and ecommerce spending, AliBaba has grown to match its mightiest competitor.

The Chinese company is the product of a splendid growth in China’s eCommerce, a market that is expected to reach $655 billion by 2020. Encouraged by these developments and pushed forward by global ambitions, AliBaba will take its IPO to the US, later this year.

Now how would these two companies look side-by-side? The good folks at SmartIntern decided the world was ready for a comparison between the two behemoths. Have a look at the infographic below. The full version opens in a new window.

infographic-see-more

 

 

 

Is Mobile Commerce Taking Over Ecommerce?

A chart based on US Census Bureau and Comscore data was published by Business Insider. It shows Mobile Commerce growing three times faster than Ecommerce overall.

Is Mobile Commerce taking on "classic" Ecommerce?

Is Mobile Commerce taking on “classic” Ecommerce? Source.

The numbers behind it are very interesting:

  1. mobile commerce is on the rise and has registered a 48% YoY growth, in the second quarter. It now accounts for $8 billion in online spending.
  2. overall ecommerce (including mobile commerce) grew “only” 15.9% year over year in the second quarter and totals $70.1 billion in online sales.

However…

Stop betting on (just) mobile. We’re not there yet.

Smartphones and tablets have brought forth a revolution in computing and social interaction. Unfortunately for overenthusiastic mobile-only fans, mcommerce usage is lagging behind mobile device adoption.

If you look at the chart above you’ll see there’s a  linear growth in mobile commerce. Not a hockey puck growth. Not even an accelerated growth.

Even more – ecommerce accounts for only 5.9% of all retail. Mobile commerce itself is just 11.4% of ecommerce. This means mobile commerce, however ambitious is pretty much insignifiant. It accounts for just 0.67% of total US retail.

Smartphones and tablets are extremely popular. Mobile commerce – not so much.

And hey – it’s not the fact that people don’t like smartphones. Oh no. People love smartphones:

Growth in smartphone penetration in the US.

Growth in smartphone penetration in the US. Source.

 

 

They also love tablets. Almost 42% of all US adults own at least a tablet. Remember – this is a product that went on sale only 4 years ago, when Apple introduced the iPad. In just 4 short years, the tablet has become a virtually ubiquitous computing item for US adults.

Tablet penetration among US adults. Source.

Tablet penetration among US adults. Source.

So – people are buying mobile devices like crazy. PC sales are dropping yet the mobile commerce is just 0.67% .Why?

The short answer - there is no mobile commerce. 

Mobile is the bridge. It helps connect the physical world to the virtual world. The act of purchasing happens on multiple channels. Mobile is not “the future”. It is the present yet the present comes in a form we have not met before – a bridge across channels.

If we take the time to see matters from the consumer’s point of view things are not as black and white as we expect them to be. Few if any consumers think in terms of mobile OR desktop OR brick and mortar. The consumer will spend time in a B&M store, browse the web to search for the right products, do a little showrooming to find the be best pricing. In the end, the whole purchasing experience stretches across channels and some are more popular than others.

But the customer has only one perspective where channels blend in. The omnichannel perspective. To provide the ecosystem for this perspective, the new retailers will try to understand and implement omnichannel retail because mobile, however massive, is just a piece of the puzzle.

Interview: Thoughts on The Future of Retail

Jochen Wiechen, Intershop CTO

Jochen Wiechen, Intershop CTO

A very select group of companies lead the way when it comes to omnichannel retail solutions. Intershop is one of these companies. Having unveiled its first online shop in 1994, it’s also one of the most experienced and innovative. Now more than 500 mid-sized and large companies benefit from its solutions. Among these you can find Hewlett-Packard, BMW, Bosch, Otto, Deutsche Telekom, and Mexx.

We’ve reached out to mr. Jochen Wiechen, Intershop’s CTO, for a few thoughts on the future of retail. Previously a VP of ERP powerhouse SAP, mr. Wiechen holds a PhD in Physics and has a very interesting view on the future of retail.

 

Netonomy.NET: What are the biggest changes in retail you have noticed in the past 5 years?

Jochen Wiechen: Clearly online is the main disruptive technology that has fundamentally reshaped the entire industry, not only retail by the way. Ubiquitous bandwidth availability, multi-media developments and mobile technologies allow for completely new business models and customer experiences.

The customer journey nowadays starts in the Internet, around the clock and everywhere. Sophisticated online marketing activities trigger more and more personalized buying processes that start with extensive research and lead to process innovations such as click and reserve or collect.

Rising online stars such as Amazon, Zalando and Alibaba grow extremely fast and challenge classical retailers who simply cannot ignore these developments and start embracing those concepts by embodying online into their cross-channel concepts. The winners in this game will be the ones who understand the changing customer profiles and associated behaviors as well as the potential of integrating online into an optimized omni-channel system instead of shying away and sticking to the old offline world.

 

N.: Which retailers do you believe are leading the change in global retail?

J.W.: Out of the blue Amazon has developed to the leading global online pure play as well as a relevant player in the retail industry. By consequently embracing the online concept into their channel strategy Walmart is currently showing an even faster growth rate of their online channel than Amazon and is a perfect example of a winner in the overall online transformation. Other relevant players in this game are Nordstrom, John Lewis or House of Fraser, for example.

 

N.:Do you expect Chinese retailers to increase their market share globally? Do you believe Alibaba Group’s expected IPO in the US is a step in that direction?

J.W.: Alibaba is projected to pass by Walmart in overall sales this year, the latter being the largest retailer worldwide. In the US alone, Alibaba is expected to grow 30% this year and although its development in Europe is still in its infancy, also here surprises will have to be expected.

 

N.:How important is technology in addressing the consumer needs now and in the future?

J.W.:As stated above, nowadays most customers start their journeys in the Internet which is a profound change compared to classical retail. Already at this stage they are able to browse for any categories and products from anywhere at any time with any device, to compare prices, select within huge collections, take advantage of intelligent recommendations and potentially use fitting engines before they buy either online or in the store where they might collect the selected product.

In order to provide large target groups with these services a highly complex, highly scalable, and highly available IT-infrastructure is a prerequisite. Viewed from the other way around, technology is simply key in the paradigm shift that is currently taking place in the retail industry.

“[...]technology is simply key in the paradigm shift that is currently taking place in the retail industry.”

 

N.:Which technologies do you believe are shaping the future of retail?

J.W.:Based on the speed of the disruptiveness that the combination of high Internet bandwidth availability and the development of multi-media capabilities on a plethora of end-user devices has caused in the retail industry it is expected that the evolution of further technologies will continue to reshape the industry.

While Big Data has already gained substantial market share in order to analyze and predict consumer behavior we also see a rapidly growing demand for indoor proximity systems in order to support omni-channel transformations. In general, we agree with analysts that the Internet of Things is the next big thing in not only this industry. Devices, gadgets and sensors of all sorts interact amongst each other as well as with human beings in order to reach a new level of communications and interactions. The winners in the upcoming retail industry battle will be the ones who take advantage of this technology development that will lead to today possibly unimaginable customer journey innovations.

 

N.:How will mobile devices impact retailers and shape consumer behavior?

J.W.:On the one hand, mobile devices allow for ubiquitous browsing and shopping which removes any local stickiness of the consumer, who can even choose the best offer while walking through a mall. Recent search engine analytics reveal astonishing portions of regional references in search requests.

On the other hand, this is an opportunity for retailers thereby taking advantage of location-based services by sending ads or promotions to consumers walking by a store, in which a sales person might then use a mobile shop assistant app in order to lure the customer into a well-educated sales pitch that is not only consisting of more or less good guesses based on gut feelings or superficial conversations that help shying away the customer.

N.:Will 3D printing technologies be used in improving tomorrow’s supply chain?

Amazon's 3D Printing Store points to new developments in retailing.

Amazon’s 3D Printing Store points to new developments in retailing.

J.W.:While the usage of the technology on the consumer side is still in its infancy, Amazon just recently already opened a shop for products coming out of 3D printers and has again proven its leading role in the industry. It is hard to say how far the technology will be able to be pushed in terms of product complexity which then will determine the extent to which it will be used in supply chains.

N.:What are the next steps in Intershop’s evolution, in terms of innovation?

J.W.:Based on a research project we have been carrying out together with local Universities we are currently rolling out a commerce simulation engine (SIMCOMMERCE) that falls into the category Predictive Analytics and that allows for outstanding optimization capabilities for commerce operators.

Apart from that, we are closely working together with our customers and partners to explore various process innovations by integrating new technologies, devices and gadgets with our platform. With our SEED initiative, with which we scan the market for commerce-relevant leading edge technologies that we can incorporate into our offering we are looking for ways to help our customers to substantially improve their traffic, conversion rates as well as sales and delivery processes. We agree with leading analysts that the Internet of Things will play a dominant role in those developments.

Book Review: On China, by Henry Kissinger

How do you describe China? How could one understand a land with historic roots that spawn for almost 4000 years? No easy task, that’s for sure.

Henry Kissinger, the statesman credited for opening the US ties to Communist China in 1971, tries to do just that in its book “On China”.

On China, Henry Kissinger

On China, Henry Kissinger

The book is a framework for anyone willing to dive in the complex culture that China has carried throughout the ages. It is a vast exposition on what makes China so enduring and so different from the type of empire we have come to know in the west.

The reason “On China” is reviewed here, a blog on the future of retail, goes beyond the obvious (manufacturing). By reading Kissinger’s masterpiece, we will get a glimpse into the future, through the lens of the past. We can see China is not a rising power. It is a returning power. It is a land that fostered the strongest economy in the world through 18 out of the previous 20 centuries.

China predated the Roman Empire. It survived it and lived on to be reached by the British Empire. It survived this one as well and now it survives another one. The fact that its economy keeps rising and rising, its retailers take the world by storm and the country has moved beyond its Mao Zedong legacy shows the quiet force this country packs.

The Wei Qi principle

Henry Kissinger proposes the Wei-Qi game as a start point to understanding China. As opposed to the oldest western strategy game, Chess, Wei Qi has some key differences.

First of all – there are a lot more pieces that have to be used in the game. The pieces are all equally valued. As opposed to chess, the Wei Qi pieces are all just as valuable. There are no knights, no bishops, no king and no queen. All pieces are equally important and equally effective.

The point is not to find the pivotal action to winning the game. The point is to avoid being surrounded. Throughout China’s troubled history, generals have discovered how costly defeats are, when the enemy surrounds the troops. The war strategy has shifted from direct engagement to battles that are won before they are even fought, through good preparation, as the mythical Sun Tzu general would have noted.

These simple yet powerful differences and others such, have shaped China’s destiny throughout the centuries. Western history barely mentions the Chinese Empire, yet the court viewed itself as ruler of all that is “Under the Heavens”. The Chinese Empire rarely fought outside its borders (viewing such act as a crime). It nevertheless encountered its fare share of troubles with barbarians outside its borders, constantly being attacked. Unlike its western counterparts, it used diplomacy, rather than force to subdue weaker civilizations. The court was well taught by centuries of rich history on how to negotiate alliances, resisting attacks, integrating barbarians or even using politics to break alliances between its closest enemies. Sometimes using the enemies farther away to control those closest to the empire.

The fall of the empire

Throughout the centuries diplomacy and politic skill has been enough to keep the “barbarians” at bay. Eventually, even the Celestial Empire had to run out of luck. In the beginning of the 18th century, Western colonial powers, as well as Russia, were knocking on the gates of the Empire, trying to develop a commerce relationship. Russia, being closer and in a position to threaten China, was the first country, Kissinger notes, to be allowed to have a de facto embassy. The embassy was in fact an orthodox mission but it was a lot more than the British Empire had.

The British, as well as other colonial powers, were barely allowed a presence within the empire. Commerce was carefully regulated and restricted. In time, as diplomacy failed to get results, the British decided to use force. As China previously refused to get  western military technology, it was quickly overwhelmed by better trained soldiers, using more advanced weaponry. The “Barbarians” forced their way towards the capitol, eventually being stopped by Russia’s diplomats who negotiated a temporarily redraw. But this help from the friendly Russians was costly. China agreed to a humiliating act that would offer vast territories to Russia, in exchange for its help.

This humiliating treaties, rising internal instability, and the enemies at the gates eventually lead the empire to crumble. In 1912, the last Emperor abdicated, and China became a republic.

It wasn’t for the better, as China was virtually ungoverned. Henry Kissinger lists intervention by the United States to help the forming republic, supporting the existing nationalist government. But it was not this government that eventually won the power. It was a new leader, a communist leader: Mao Zedong.

The Communist China

Kissinger lists Mao’s rise with a reverence that may seem unnatural at times. After all – Mao is seen less like an enlightened leader in the western world, and more like a power hungry criminal that lead its country, as well as the party close to imminent self destruction. Whether it is diplomatic courtesy (you have to expect reverence from a high level US statesman) or genuine interest, if not admiration – Kissinger is clearly inclined to describe Mao as a Chinese savior. Whether it is the fact that he reunited China, or that China survived the Soviet Union’s threat, Henry Kissinger sees Mao as an important geopolitical player.

Mao defied and somehow survived both the US and the Soviet Union. Unlike the weakened European countries, Mao repeatedly declared his country was not afraid of the Nuclear Threat. No one will know if he was just bluffing to resist on the world stage, or he was actually not caring if 300 million Chinese would die in a Nuclear war. The “Great Leap Forward” and the “Cultural Revolution” would later point into the second direction.

The farthest enemy

Although Mao listed Confucianism and “the old ways” as obsolete and not to be used, he did resort to one of these tactics when the Soviet Union deployed 1 million soldiers at the Chinese-Soviet border. The soldiers were not much of a problem, but the nukes were. China and USSR were no longer comrades, and the Soviet Union was likely planning a preemptive nuclear attack. Mao decided to apply the old strategy of using the enemies from afar against those closer.

In 1971 Henry Kissinger lists its meeting with both Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai. At the time, Zhou Enlai was the prime minister for over 22 years and he left a deep impression on the US statesman: “In 60 years of public life, I have never met a person more fascinating than Zhou Enlai“. This meeting extended in the next year with a visit from Richard Nixon and it was the the start in a long relationship between the two states.  It was also the visit that probably stopped a nuclear attack on China.

Mr. Enlai was eventually replaced and Mao left its position, leading the way for a new leadership. It was this new leader, Deng Xiaoping, that turned China from a starving, barely educated country, bathing in Mao’s shadow, to a growing economic power.

His work was later continued by Jiang Zemin, that encouraged education, technology developments and eventually helped China join the WTO in 2001.

Since 2001, just 13 years ago, China became a leading manufacturer, the sourcing choice for retailers worldwide, to a dominant power that now exports not only products, but rather leading businesses.

Henry Kissinger ends the book by reminding the reader of the Crowe Memorandum,  an analysis of pre-WWI Germany and the causes that lead to war. Though he envisions a future where the Pacific Powers (US and China) can collaborate in peace, he does pose the question of whether such a future is possible. The last paragraph cites Zhou Enlai, at the first meeting in 1971, when the Chinese PM mentioned their meeting will “shake the world”. The big question, for this new century, mr Kissinger asks, is could China and the US build the world, rather than shake it?

 

Amazon Turns 20. An Illustrated History.

Amazon turns 20 this month. Founded in July 1994 by Jeff Bezos, it has now grown into the largest online retailer.

As a sign of their appreciation, the folks at DPFOC, an online marketing company, created the infographic below. The company has also created an interactive timeline, showing the most important milestones in Amazon’s 20 year history. You can enjoy it here.

Amazon turns 20. Company history infographic

Amazon turns 20. Company history infographic

“Don’t Get Surrounded” – China’s Strategy Against US Online Retail

Chess is the oldest and most popular strategy game in the west. It’s main object is gaining superiority through a decisive move against the opponent. The chess player looks for a decisive action that can lead to victory, in as few moves as possible.

Wei Qi game. Source

Wei Qi game. Source

Unlike their western counterparts, asian states have developed their military strategy around a different philosophy. Wei Qi, or the game of Go (as referred to in Japan) is the traditional game in China. Players use 180 pieces, each having the same value, to build fortifications and capture enemy positions. Unlike chess, the players don’t have a clear view of the competitor’s strategy, as the pieces are continually laid down. Matches are hardly seen as win or loose and the score can be overturned during the match, multiple times.

While chess players look for decisive actions, Wei Qi players use continuos movement to avoid being surrounded. The game, just like its western equivalent, is based on centuries of difficult wars. Due to China’s long and troubled history, its strategic approach has become less about direct confrontation and more about avoiding defeat and gaining relative advantage toward the opponent.

Western countries are playing the wrong game

Henry Kissinger expressed his view that Wei Qi is the path to understanding China’s strategy. In his book “On China” he starts describing Chinese policies through this ancient game. Although Kissinger’s metaphor is aimed at politics and military actions, it can just as well be applied to economics and for that matter, online retail.

When Ebay tried to access the Chinese market in 2004, Jack Ma, the founder of AliBaba Group, has sensed that this move may be detrimental to his own company, then providing internet marketing options to small and medium companies in China. He felt that although Ebay addressed the individual sellers, there was no clear distinction between individual businesses and small/medium companies in China.

Ebay had just laid the first stone on Jack Ma’s Wei Qi board. He decided he had to escape this potentially dangerous situation and launched Taobao, a company directly competing Ebay in China. The companies fought valiantly, with eBay trying to form partnerships against Alibaba and Taobao and investing $100 million in its Ebay EachNet operations.

While Ebay was buying all ad spaces it could find online, in a search for the decisive move, AliBaba bought TV and radio ad space, knowing the Chinese consumers were more influenced by  traditional media at the time. Ebay focused on increasing product listing numbers, while AliBaba focused on customer service. Piece by piece, AliBaba laid down all its advantages and finally pushed Ebay out of the Chinese market, in 2006.

Unfortunately, Ebay was not playing the right game in China. It’s strategy was flawed as it wasn’t able to find the check-mate move. Jack Ma made sure his strategy encircled and captured Ebay’s future earnings. But it was not enough. His game of Wei Qi was not just a timely thing. It was a prolonged campaign.

Chinese online retailers are far from stopping

This year AliBaba decided it will get listed in the United States. After it has managed to grow to handle almost 84% of China’s Ecommerce market, it has now decided to cross the Pacific and try an offensive move inside what is now the second biggest ecommerce market, the US.

AliBaba is not the only Chinese company reaching for the US online retail market. 58.com, a Chinese company dealing with classified ads and listed on the US market, has just received a $736 million investment from Tencent, another Chinese internet company.

Although both these companies are now tapping the capital market in the US, their long term intentions are probably more ambitious. Their presence in the US is a sure way to avoid encirclement. Whenever their position will become endangered, they will push farther.

While the Chinese – US economic dynamics are far more complicated and it cannot all be reduced to a game, one thing is for sure. The Yangtze crocodiles have crossed the Pacific and they are not there to play chess.

Amazon vs Walmart Comparison in one Essential Chart

Two companies have redefined retail in the past 50 years. One is a company founded by Sam Walton in 1962. Mr. Walton opened the first Walmart in Rogers, Arkansas. The other is an Internet company, founded by Jeff Bezos in his small garage in Bellevue, Washington. This second company is Amazon, the largest Internet Retailer.

Both companies went on to be huge successes but in terms of revenue, Walmart has the upper hand. With $469 billion in 2013 revenue and 10700 stores opened worldwide, Walmart beats by far Amazon’s $74 billion 2013 revenue. If you look at the raw data Amazon is no match for Walmart. But pull back just a bit and the picture is changes. By comparing the track records for the two companies an interesting insight becomes clear:

Amazon vs Walmart - 17 years revenue comparison

Amazon vs Walmart – 17 years revenue comparison

The chart above is a comparison in terms of historic revenue. On one hand you have Walmart – the biggest and most successful retailer in recorded history. Employer of 2.2 million people, crusher of markets and destroyer of mom and pop shops. On the other hand you have Amazon, the brave new world of online retail. Both redefined their markets and both are leaders in their respective fields.

But one is unlike the other. See – I couldn’t even put together figures from the first years in Walmart’s history. Walmart’s revenues starts 6 years after the first Walmart opened, in 1968. That’s when the company reached a figure ($12.6 million) comparable to Amazon’s first year with recorded revenue (1996 – $15.7 million). 17 year after the company launch, Amazon registered $74.4 billion in revenue, while Walmart registered “just” $6.4 billion.

Both the trend and evolution show one thing - Amazon is on its way to become the biggest retailer in the world, a type of retailer the world has never seen. This might probably be a good time to reconsider your stock choices.